Turkey: Calling Erdogan's bluff

SW entrance, Hagia Sophia. Wiki image

Until recently, it seemed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan might finally run out of luck in June 2023, when he faces the Turkish voters. But on December 14th, Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul and Erdogan's most credible political opponent, was convicted of "insulting public officials" after calling someone an idiot. The two-years and seven months prison sentence eliminated the president's strongest challenger. Last month, Lord Alton asked the UK to join the US and the EU in condemning Erdogan's self-interested manoeuvre.

Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian and intolerant rule should concern Christians and those who care about human rights and religious freedom. Yet, the Turkish leader continues to exert disproportionate influence over the international community. Last month, he warned Greece that Turkish missiles could reach Athens, a fellow NATO member. He threatens to veto Finland and Sweden's bid to join NATO. He has inserted himself between Russia and the West, facilitating negotiations over grain shipments from Ukraine; in 2016 the EU began paying him an estimated six billion euros (so far) to prevent four million Syrian refuges heading for Europe to claim asylum; and his armed forces are poised to invade northern Syria and Iraq in pursuit of Kurdish insurgents, potentially provoking more emigration. Moreover, he hosts NATO's Incirlik base.

The West also turns a blind eye to what Freedom House calls Erdogan's "growing contempt for political rights and civil liberties." Friends of Erdogan control 90% of the media, and Turkey ranks fourth for jailing journalists, behind Iran, China, and Myanmar. Media questioning the imprisonment Istanbul's mayor face harsh fines. To quote my ex-pat Turkish humanitarian aid worker acquaintance, "Every time I go home, more and more of my friends from university days are in prison."

The West views Erdogan as a moderate Islamist, a term he has rejected. He views Muslims as exceptional, saying they are incapable of committing genocide: (Armenians may disagree). On a trivial level, his deputy prime minister told women not to laugh in public, giving rise to thousands of Turkish women laughing in social media posts.

Erdogan's tolerance of Islamic State's activities should have raised the alarm years ago. Pari Ibrahim of the Free Yezidi Foundation says 2,763 Yezidi women and children remain missing, following their abduction by Islamic State in 2014. Many are traded on "deep web" social media in Turkey. The families of several hostages have rescued women from homes in the Ankara area. When a Yezidi family presented Turkish police with proof that an enslaved woman was being held locally, officers said they were unable to act without permission from Ankara, meaning the president's office. A Turkish journalist highlighting the network of Islamist traders and business people involved was harassed by the security services.

On January 5th, the US Treasury Department designated four individuals and two companies in Turkey who have been facilitating IS's recruitment and financial transactions. They believe that since 2014, Turkey has been a key jurisdiction the Islamic State exploits for smuggling militants, weapons, and funds to Syria via currency bureaux and jewellers stores. The US special envoy, Brett McGurk, wrote that although President Barack Obama repeatedly asked Erdogan, "to control the Turkish border with Syria," through which Islamic State fighters and materiel "flowed freely," Erdogan "took no action."

Christians should also be concerned by the increasingly difficult environment facing Turkey's 180,000 Christians, and the neglect of Hagia Sophia and other historic Christian monuments. Last month, Aid to the Church in Need published its 2020-2022 report describing the desecration of church property, the harassment of Christians, and the precarious legal status of most Christian sects in Turkey, including Catholics.

The international community averts its eyes from this track record, fearful of Erdogan's threats. However, a unified and consistent multilateral approach would neutralize their potency. There is evidence he responds to pressure: until Turkey's economic problems, he supported the worldwide Muslim Brotherhood, but now he goes cap in hand to the Brotherhood's enemies, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE for financial support. Having vilified Bashar Assad, he now wants Syria to take back its refugees, who are unpopular in Turkey.

Does Erdogan, whose battered economy suffered 85% inflation in 2022, with a 30% reduction in the value of the lira against the dollar, want to be sanctioned if he sides with Russia? Does the Turkish president want to imperil the flow of billions of euros into his treasury from the EU, his main trading partner? Does he wish to continue buying US F16s and American nuclear power technology? Calling his bluff might be a wiser approach than appeasing him. Condemning the prison sentence against the mayor of Istanbul is a good place to start.