Christian Aid report shows climate change threat to chocolate

Amelia

Source: Christian Aid

Our Valentine's Day box of chocolates is under threat due to extreme weather in Africa's key cocoa growing regions leading to spiking cocoa prices and an uncertain future for cocoa growers.

A new report by the international development charity Christian Aid shows rising temperatures and erratic rainfall has hammered cocoa harvests in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, where more than 50% of global cocoa is grown. This has slashed the availability of cocoa on global markets, seeing prices soar and around the world to record highs in recent years - and the size of chocolate bars shrink.

The report, Cocoa crisis: How chocolate is feeling the bite of climate change, coincides with new data from research group Climate Central which shows that over the past decade climate change added at least three weeks above 32°C (89.6°F) annually during the main cacao crop season (October-March) in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. Such temperatures are above the optimal temperature range for cacao trees.

In 2024 alone, human-caused climate change added six weeks' worth of days above 32°C in 71% of cacao-producing areas across Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria.

According to the charity's study, this year's cocoa shortage follows a similar crash in production last year which saw cocoa prices rise 400% to $12,218 a ton after droughts, floods and climate-related diseases hit cocoa farmers last year. On 18 December 2024, a new record was set at $12,605 per ton and prices have remained stubbornly high ever since.

The cocoa shortage started in 2023, after unexpectedly heavy rainfall during Ghana's dry season. Total precipitation in West Africa was more than double the 30-year average for the time of year and the wet conditions caused plants to rot with black pod disease. This was followed by severe drought in 2024. The UN said that Ghana's 2024 drought affected more than 1 million people, and resulted in terrible crop losses and record-high food prices. According to a study by World Weather Attribution, climate change made the heatwave in West Africa 10 times more likely.[i]

Osai Ojigho, Director of Policy and Public Campaigns of Christian Aid, is calling for action to cut emissions and targeted climate finance for cocoa growers. She said: "Growing cocoa is a vital livelihood for many of the poorest people around the world and human caused climate change is putting that under serious threat. Chocolate is one of the many products that connects consumers in the global north with growers in the global south. Likewise, climate change, driven largely by the greenhouse gas emissions of the global north is causing havoc around the world with cocoa farmers bearing the brunt. We need to see emissions cut, and targeted climate finance going to cocoa growers to help them adapt."

Andy Soden, Kernow Chocolate, said: "Global cocoa production has been impacted for the about last four years due to a rapidly changing climate, and also El Nino and La Nina effects. The layman's version of this essentially is they are getting the wrong weather at the wrong point in the growing and harvest cycle, which is massively reducing output. Low supply and high global demand have inflated market prices globally from a relatively stable market price to upwards of £10,000 a tonne.

"For a small manufacturer, this has the potential to put us out of business long term as our wholesale price for 2025 is very close to passing our retail price of 2023. Such is the rapid inflation of the base price. Larger companies can manipulate recipes to remove cocoa products (substituting cocoa butter for dried cream etc) or alter pack sizes. As a small business, making everything by hand, this kind of workaround just isn't an option, so we have no option but increase pricing and hope that the product remains saleable.

"It's a nightmare, I don't think any business involved in chocolate has avoided this impact, and it's all down to climate change."

Alexander Carnwath, Head of Public Affairs at the Fairtrade Foundation, added: "Environmental sustainability across the cocoa supply chain cannot be achieved without social and economic sustainability. Where cocoa producers are bound by trading relationships that require them to sell below the cost of production, they may be forced to resort to unsustainable practices. The ability of producers to earn a living income, through higher prices for their produce, is a key enabler as well as a precondition for ensuring effective climate action. The payment of higher prices by businesses must be accompanied by greater action by governments, especially those in rich countries.

"At Fairtrade we believe that the UK's economic growth is inseparable from trade that benefits farmers across the world. We hear every day from farmers who tell us that international trade is still not fair. In the Trade Strategy due to be published in Spring, the UK government has the power to drive change. It can do this by ensuring coherence between its trade, development, and climate policies.

"The UK government must carefully craft its approach to trade in a way that supports businesses and the livelihoods of the millions of small-holder farmers in low-income countries. This is what will deliver sustainability in our food supply chains."

Amelia Pop Chocoj, a 24 year-old cocoa grower in Guatemala, added: "My plantations have been dying due to the lack of water, and in terms of how it's affecting me, there is no food for my family. The cocoa trees are dying, which are usually very resilient. I'm actually not worried that it 'may' happen (climate related crop loss) it's happening already."

Aurelia Pop Xo, a 53 year old cocoa grower in Guatemala, said: "Climate change has been killing our crops. This means there is no income because we cannot sell anything.

"What is happening is that my planation has been dying. So what has been happening, is death. Death to my crops. The few cocoa trees I had, didn't develop enough, so we couldn't use them. The same thing happened to the banana crops, they are dying off. The trees are folding down and dying. The crops have been dying. In the past there was a prediction that this would happen in the future, but it has come earlier and this is because we are not taking care of our motherland, our ecosystems, and this is very worrying for our kids and especially for our grandkids."

Gemma Whitaker, Whitakers Chocolates, said: "At Whitakers Chocolates, we recognise that climate change poses a very real threat to cocoa growers worldwide, from rising temperatures to unpredictable weather that impacts harvests. As chocolate makers, we're deeply committed to safeguarding the future of cocoa by supporting more sustainable farming methods, reducing our own carbon footprint, and collaborating closely with our growers and suppliers. That's why at Whitakers, we support Fairtrade cocoa, ensuring farmers receive fair prices and promoting a secure future for chocolate production. We believe urgent action on climate change is essential to protect both the livelihoods of cocoa farmers and the heritage of chocolate for generations to come."

"In the last two years, the cocoa industry and every subsequent industry that supplies have seen rapid rises in market pricing, this increase which is completely linked to climate change. The two major cocoa producing countries are Ivory Coast and Ghana. They share a land border and unfortunately, get affected by the same weather, and there's no other country that grows cocoa in enough volume to cover this shortfall."

Mohamed Adow, Director of Nairobi-based climate and energy think tank, Power Shift Africa, said: "Africa produces more than 50% of the world's cocoa and as such we are the engine room of the global chocolate industry. However climate change is causing havoc for cocoa growers in the continent, with unpredictable droughts and rising temperatures in recent years which has dealt a hammer blow to many farmers. A study has shown that the 2023 heatwave in West Africa which decimated cocoa plants was made 10 times more likely due to man-made climate change.

"This is just another example of the African livelihoods that are coming under threat from the extreme weather caused by carbon pollution. That is why we need to see more rapid roll-out of clean, renewable energy, and more targeted financial support for African farmers to help them adapt."

Ibrahima Coulibaly, president of the ROPPA, an organisation that represents thousands of cocoa farmers in West Africa: "Decades of underinvestment and unfair trade mean West Africa's cocoa farmers are highly vulnerable to climate impacts. To safeguard chocolate supplies governments need to work with - and invest in - farmers' and their organisations. If farmers organisations have more direct access to climate finance we can scale up nature-friendly practices - such as planting trees to protect the cocoa pods - that are key to adaptation. If farmers are paid a fair price for their cocoa they can invest in their farms."